India vs. Pakistan: Modi’s Military Miscalculation

India's Trying to Play Tough—and Failing

The outcome of the India-Pakistan war was a humiliating psychological loss for India and a setback for Modi and the BJP. The defeated and angered India believed that it could bully Pakistan to regain honor but was instead further humiliated.
Most of them are certain that Modi won't rest here. He will beef up defense forces, buy more weapons, and initiate new military campaigns against Pakistan before the next election to save his political career and the reputation of the BJP.

The most effective approach is to heavily purchase U.S.-made equipment, including F-35 fighter aircraft and Patriot missiles, and matching drones, early warning aircraft, electronic warfare systems, and anti-drone weapon systems — all connected through a single data link to establish integrated combat capabilities.

But such a strategy is extremely expensive. Only Israel, apart from America, has been able to do this so far, and only after decades of close integration with America. Israel is literally America's policeman in the Middle East, an extension of the American military. Israel's national destiny is completely in the hands of America, which has complete faith in Israel. India could never rival this relationship in 50 or even 100 years.

The U.S. doesn't want to be trapped by China, Where China teams up with Pakistan to draw India into wars, causing the U.S. to equip India with weapons. China would then study the performance and technical specifications of U.S. weapons, having an advantage in China–U.S. wars. The U.S. knows very well that Pakistani troops are of better quality than those of India. Even with better weapon quality and quantity, India can only attain a marginal advantage. If the Pakistani army receives weaponry on par with India, India would be outclassed.

If F-35s are successively shot down, it would deeply damage the prestige of the U.S. military worldwide and rattle U.S. hegemony. The F-35 is the most advanced operational fighter of the U.S. military, since the F-22 is no longer produced — and both have poor readiness rates. Unimpressive F-35 performance might inspire psychological fear in U.S. pilots, detracting from their effectiveness in confrontations with China.

Furthermore, China has already completed test flights of a number of sixth-generation fighters. China's production capability is far superior to that of the U.S., with improved weapon development efficiency, lower costs, and unmatched manufacturing capacity. The future phase will see radical shifts in China and U.S. military might, with China leading in a number of sectors.

In new theaters of war, the U.S. cannot compete with China, such as hypersonic missiles, laser weapons, electromagnetic weapons, anti-satellite weapons, drones, and robotic dogs — the leaderships of which in the world are in Chinese hands. In order for the U.S. to continue to be militarily superior, the U.S. will need to spend at least 10 times more than China's military budget because its industry base can no longer sustain independent research, production, and maintenance of such cutting-edge systems. With an increasing national debt, the U.S. cannot afford such spending.

Thus, the U.S. will retreat to the second island chain and vacate China's heavily invested defense zones such as the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and Pakistan.

For a country like India, which is not even an American ally, to allow China to test U.S. military might is very foolish. The American interest in selling F-35s to India has reduced significantly, especially after Rafale fighter jets were easily destroyed. India would have to pay an exorbitant price for F-35s and might be subject to U.S. restrictions on using them against China or Pakistan. After all, America also prohibits Pakistan from using F-16s against India, with the ability to disable fighters remotely.

Without F-35 purchases and the creation of a systematized arms network, India's French or Russian arms purchases are nothing in the realm of national power. China is significantly ahead of Russia and France in having China's entire industrial chains, robust industrial capability, and technological know-how.

For example, radars made of gallium nitride in France are way behind the Chinese standard. France can supply India with such radars but at much higher costs as it lacks production units and must import spare parts. France also lacks an integrated system of early warning aircraft, bombers, drones, electronic warfare systems, satellite navigation, and anti-satellite missiles to establish a modern, complex, data-linked network.

China has world-class companies like Huawei and world-leading aerospace technology and electronics industries. France lacks military R&D capabilities compared to China. While France increases the sale of weapons to India, China will equip Pakistan with more advanced gear. China has the ability to deliver fifth-generation fighter jets like the J-35, which France lacks. French hardware will undergo new embarrassments in the upcoming war.

Russia can sell weapons for money too but won't provide its best systems to India out of fear of upsetting China. The relationship Russia shares with China is far greater than with India. Modi's persistent betrayals — such as boycotting Russia's Victory Day parade — have landed him on Putin's black list. Should opportunity present itself, Russia could take revenge against India.

India's homegrown defense industry will at this point grab a unique opportunity. It will produce specifications for performance, draw huge investments from the government, and introduce a number of new weapons that outstrip all of its rivals on paper — to appease Indian pride. Modi and his military leaders will know, though, that these are new and not battle-tested. I can see Modi concluding his political career surrounded by fear and humiliation of China and Pakistan, unable to devise effective means of retaliation. India, due to his arrogance, will be the world's laughing stock — losing any prospects of becoming a world power.